Still reeling from his drubbing in Michigan, Gov. Michael Dukakis promises no change in strategy, no sudden midcourse maneuvers.
”We`ve won a lot of primaries and caucuses and we`ve lost some,” he said Monday at a Brooklyn housing complex for the homeless. ”One thing we`ve learned over the course of these past few months: You don`t try to be somebody you`re not. We`re going to continue to campaign on the issues of economic opportunity, of economic growth, of a caring and concerned nation.”
But Democratic Party leaders are not so sanguine. Following Jesse Jackson`s stunning victory in Saturday`s Michigan caucuses, they wonder when, if ever, the low-key Massachusetts governor will catch on with the voters and, if he does not, who will be the party`s presidential nominee.
Despite brave words to the contrary, the Dukakis campaign is still trying to get a sense of the post-Michigan poltical landscape.
Aides say there will be more emphasis on ”retail,” one-on-one campaigning and less time spent at private fundraisers. Also, more time has been penciled in for Wisconsin, where the April 5 primary is the next major stop on the Democratic presidential caravan.
Aides also contend that the race has narrowed to two candidates-Dukakis and Jackson-and this will better allow Dukakis` message of competence and experience to emerge.
”In a two-man race, the focus tends to happen naturally,” said Steven Rosenfeld, the governor`s former chief counsel and now a top campaign aide.
”Campaigns should avoid going out and doing something that`s not in character. Other candidates have done it, and it backfired.”
The notion of ”inevitability” that Dukakis tried to cultivate with superior organization and big-name endorsem*nts has been smashed by poor showings in two Northern industrial states, Illinois and Michigan, two states the Democrats need to carry if they are to win in November.
Democratic analysts and politicians say the Michigan results underscored the major flaw in the Dukakis presidential effort: the lack of a clearly focused message that can appeal to a broad segment of voters.
”What`s missing in Dukakis is populism, and Democrats have to have economic populism to win an election,” said William Schneider, a political analyst with the American Enterprise Institute. ”He represents the suburban liberal reformers who want to change the way people do business. They`re interested in competent managers and the larger Democratic constituency doesn`t want a manager.”
It is a problem the Dukakis campaign has always been aware of. In an attempt to attract blue-collar votes, Dukakis in recent weeks has tried to talk in more populist terms, attacking corporate mergers and even blurring his views on foreign trade and protectionism.
But for this self-proclaimed technocrat, these moves changed his political image just around the edges and, as the Michigan results showed, had little or no impact on voters.
”Mike`s message works more naturally in the . . . states that are more optimistic about their future,” Rosenfeld said. ”With a state that`s angry about the future, we have to work harder.”
In fact, Dukakis` basic upbeat message should be an advantage as the campaign moves into more prosperous states like Connecticut, which votes Tuesday; New York, California and New Jersey.
But, as Michigan showed, the theme of optimism does not play as well in states with economic problems, which means he could have difficulty in upcoming primary states like Pennsylvania and Ohio.
To emerge as the nominee, party insiders say, Dukakis has to do more than just say he has been a competent governor. He has to appeal to both segments of the party-the haves and the have-nots-and give voters a clearer, better defined reason why they should elect him president.
”At this stage, Dukakis needs the voters to look at him and know he will move this country forward, be a strong president and fight for us,” said Geoffrey Garin, a Democratic pollster. ”Up until now, the Dukakis campaign has been operating on a political mind-set and it has to move to a message mind-set.”
Dukakis also has to decide how to handle Jackson. The campaign has the delicate problem of trying to contrast Dukakis` record with Jackson`s without offending the Chicago minister or allowing racial overtones to slip into the campaign.
Some believe Dukakis should go after Jackson, reminding voters of his embrace of Yasser Arafat, head of the Palestine Liberation Organization, and the financial difficulties of Operation PUSH. But that is not Dukakis` style and it could easily backfire.
”Going after Jackson is just another way of avoiding self-definition,”
Garin said. ”Voters need to know what the candidate wants to do and . . . stand for.”
